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BJ's Wholesale to Post Q1 Earnings: Is Another Beat on the Horizon?
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Key Takeaways
BJ reports fiscal Q1 2026 results May 22; revenue seen $5.435B and EPS estimated at $1.04.
BJ renewal strength and digital options aided engagement; comp club sales excluding gas seen up 1.7%.
BJ margin may face ~60-bp hit from pricing and expansion; tariff pressure and soft discretionary spend noted.
BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 22, before market open. The warehouse retailer has been benefiting from steady membership growth, strong traffic trends and expanding digital capabilities, raising investors’ optimism ahead of earnings. The key question remains: Can BJ’s deliver another earnings beat this quarter?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues stands at $5,435 million, indicating a 5.5% increase from the prior-year reported figure. On the earnings front, the consensus estimate has fallen a penny to $1.04 per share over the past seven days, implying a year-over-year decline of 8.8%.
BJ's Wholesale has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.4%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Marlborough, MA-based company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Predicts for BJ
As investors prepare for BJ's first-quarter announcement, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for BJ's Wholesale this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
BJ's Wholesale has a negative Earnings ESP of 3.90% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
BJ’s Wholesale appears to have benefited from continued strength in its membership-driven business model during the first quarter. The company entered the period with strong renewal trends, healthy member acquisition and rising penetration of higher-tier memberships, which are likely to have supported traffic and spending trends. Management has repeatedly emphasized that consumers remain highly focused on value in an uncertain spending environment, and BJ’s competitive pricing, curated assortment and membership rewards ecosystem likely continued to resonate with budget-conscious shoppers. We expect comparable club sales, excluding gasoline sales, to increase 1.7% during the quarter under review.
The company’s digital and omnichannel capabilities are also likely to have been key contributors to first-quarter performance. BJ has continued to expand digitally enabled shopping options such as buy-online-pickup-in-club, same-day delivery and ExpressPay, all of which have been driving stronger member engagement and higher shopping frequency. Management has noted that digitally engaged members tend to be more valuable because they shop more often and spend more across channels. Continued investments in AI-enabled personalization, merchandising tools and app-based conveniences are likely to have helped the company maintain momentum in traffic and basket growth while reinforcing its position as a convenience-focused warehouse retailer.
BJ’s grocery and perishables business is likely to have remained another important growth driver in the quarter. The company has continued to benefit from improvements in assortment, merchandising execution and its Fresh 2.0 initiative. Demand for essential categories such as grocery, beverages, snacks and household staples is likely to have remained healthy as consumers prioritized value-oriented purchases. In addition, BJ’s growing portfolio of own-brand products is likely to have further supported shopper loyalty, as these offerings provide customers with lower-priced alternatives without compromising on quality.
On the flip side, first-quarter profitability is likely to have faced pressure from continued investments in value, expansion initiatives and merchandise mix shifts. Management previously highlighted ongoing efforts to invest in pricing to maintain competitive gaps against traditional retailers, particularly in grocery categories, which are likely to have weighed on merchandise margins. At the same time, higher operating expenses tied to growth initiatives are likely to have been additional cost headwinds during the quarter. We expect the operating margin to contract 60 basis points during the first quarter.
The company also acknowledged broader macro uncertainty, including tariff-related pressures and cautious discretionary spending trends, which is likely to have affected performance in certain general merchandise categories.
BJ Stock Price Performance
Shares of BJ's Wholesale have advanced 5.9% year to date against the industry’s 1.4% decline.
BJ stock has held up far better than Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI - Free Report) , though it has lagged Walmart Inc. (WMT - Free Report) and Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST). Over the same period, Walmart and Costco shares have risen 17.4% and 24.5%, respectively, while Albertsons has slipped 0.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Does BJ Present a Strong Case for Value Investing?
BJ currently trades at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 0.52, which puts it at a discount relative to the industry average of 2.14. At the same time, BJ is trading below its 12-month median P/S of 0.55X.
BJ is trading at a premium to Albertsons Companies (with a forward 12-month P/S ratio of 0.10), but at a discount to Walmart (1.38) and Costco (1.51).
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Words on BJ
BJ’s Wholesale appears well-positioned heading into its first-quarter earnings release, supported by steady membership growth, resilient traffic trends and continued momentum in digital and grocery categories. While ongoing investments in pricing, expansion initiatives and operating infrastructure may weigh on margins, the company’s value-focused model and disciplined execution continue to provide support. However, with the current earnings indicators not strongly pointing toward another beat, investors may prefer to maintain a balanced approach ahead of the release. Existing shareholders can continue holding the stock given the company’s strong fundamentals and expansion opportunities, while prospective investors may consider waiting for greater clarity from management’s commentary and near-term earnings performance before building fresh positions.
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BJ's Wholesale to Post Q1 Earnings: Is Another Beat on the Horizon?
Key Takeaways
BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 22, before market open. The warehouse retailer has been benefiting from steady membership growth, strong traffic trends and expanding digital capabilities, raising investors’ optimism ahead of earnings. The key question remains: Can BJ’s deliver another earnings beat this quarter?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues stands at $5,435 million, indicating a 5.5% increase from the prior-year reported figure. On the earnings front, the consensus estimate has fallen a penny to $1.04 per share over the past seven days, implying a year-over-year decline of 8.8%.
BJ's Wholesale has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.4%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Marlborough, MA-based company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Predicts for BJ
As investors prepare for BJ's first-quarter announcement, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for BJ's Wholesale this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
BJ's Wholesale has a negative Earnings ESP of 3.90% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. Quote
What’s Shaping BJ’s Wholesale’s Upcoming Earnings?
BJ’s Wholesale appears to have benefited from continued strength in its membership-driven business model during the first quarter. The company entered the period with strong renewal trends, healthy member acquisition and rising penetration of higher-tier memberships, which are likely to have supported traffic and spending trends. Management has repeatedly emphasized that consumers remain highly focused on value in an uncertain spending environment, and BJ’s competitive pricing, curated assortment and membership rewards ecosystem likely continued to resonate with budget-conscious shoppers. We expect comparable club sales, excluding gasoline sales, to increase 1.7% during the quarter under review.
The company’s digital and omnichannel capabilities are also likely to have been key contributors to first-quarter performance. BJ has continued to expand digitally enabled shopping options such as buy-online-pickup-in-club, same-day delivery and ExpressPay, all of which have been driving stronger member engagement and higher shopping frequency. Management has noted that digitally engaged members tend to be more valuable because they shop more often and spend more across channels. Continued investments in AI-enabled personalization, merchandising tools and app-based conveniences are likely to have helped the company maintain momentum in traffic and basket growth while reinforcing its position as a convenience-focused warehouse retailer.
BJ’s grocery and perishables business is likely to have remained another important growth driver in the quarter. The company has continued to benefit from improvements in assortment, merchandising execution and its Fresh 2.0 initiative. Demand for essential categories such as grocery, beverages, snacks and household staples is likely to have remained healthy as consumers prioritized value-oriented purchases. In addition, BJ’s growing portfolio of own-brand products is likely to have further supported shopper loyalty, as these offerings provide customers with lower-priced alternatives without compromising on quality.
On the flip side, first-quarter profitability is likely to have faced pressure from continued investments in value, expansion initiatives and merchandise mix shifts. Management previously highlighted ongoing efforts to invest in pricing to maintain competitive gaps against traditional retailers, particularly in grocery categories, which are likely to have weighed on merchandise margins. At the same time, higher operating expenses tied to growth initiatives are likely to have been additional cost headwinds during the quarter. We expect the operating margin to contract 60 basis points during the first quarter.
The company also acknowledged broader macro uncertainty, including tariff-related pressures and cautious discretionary spending trends, which is likely to have affected performance in certain general merchandise categories.
BJ Stock Price Performance
Shares of BJ's Wholesale have advanced 5.9% year to date against the industry’s 1.4% decline.
BJ stock has held up far better than Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI - Free Report) , though it has lagged Walmart Inc. (WMT - Free Report) and Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST). Over the same period, Walmart and Costco shares have risen 17.4% and 24.5%, respectively, while Albertsons has slipped 0.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Does BJ Present a Strong Case for Value Investing?
BJ currently trades at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 0.52, which puts it at a discount relative to the industry average of 2.14. At the same time, BJ is trading below its 12-month median P/S of 0.55X.
BJ is trading at a premium to Albertsons Companies (with a forward 12-month P/S ratio of 0.10), but at a discount to Walmart (1.38) and Costco (1.51).
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Words on BJ
BJ’s Wholesale appears well-positioned heading into its first-quarter earnings release, supported by steady membership growth, resilient traffic trends and continued momentum in digital and grocery categories. While ongoing investments in pricing, expansion initiatives and operating infrastructure may weigh on margins, the company’s value-focused model and disciplined execution continue to provide support. However, with the current earnings indicators not strongly pointing toward another beat, investors may prefer to maintain a balanced approach ahead of the release. Existing shareholders can continue holding the stock given the company’s strong fundamentals and expansion opportunities, while prospective investors may consider waiting for greater clarity from management’s commentary and near-term earnings performance before building fresh positions.